Swine Flu So Far
It’s now springtime in the southern hemisphere and the flu season is winding down. As the northern hemisphere flu season starts to kick into gear, a look at the experience down under may provide some visibility into what the US can expect this winter. A fact not lost on the US government, who produced their own report on the topic.
When the southern hemisphere flu season was starting up back in May, the forecasts were grim – including expectations of 6,000 to 10,000 swine flu deaths in Australia alone, football games and other large gatherings cancelled, even Parliament could be shut down (which might have had its own appeal).
Now the season is nearly over, and swine flu has just not lived up to its billing.
South America seemed to have been particularly hard hit, and Brazil currently has the highest number of deaths from swine flu in the world. This is likely to be a reflection of its relatively large population, rather than a particular statement about the virulence of the flu in Brazil or the quality of its health care system. Other South American countries were also hit quite hard.
In Australia, 165 people have died of the swine flu so far, and there are about 300 still in hospital. Virtually all of these deaths were people with chronic health conditions. Pregnant women were also hit hard by the flu, and some of the most tragic stories from the season involve these otherwise healthy young women. But for the most part, the symptoms of swine flu were quite mild. We are told that many of us would have had it and not known.
Two things make this flu a bit different to most: the rate it spreads, and the people it targets. At one point, over 90% of flu cases presented in Melbourne were swine flu. In Sydney, the number was over 80% at its peak. The pressure on the hospitals was enormous, with some hospitals cancelling all elective surgeries in order to free up beds for swine flu victims. And unlike other flu strains, most of the victims of swine flu were young.
However, to keep it in perspective, there are typically about 2500 deaths in Australia each year from influenza. Ten years from now if you look at a graph of deaths per year from flu in Australia, the swine flu epidemic is unlikely to be noticed.
There is every reason to believe the swine flu experience in the northern hemisphere this winter will be similar – lots of infections, not many deaths.
The northerners are quite lucky in one respect. An effective swine flu vaccine is expected to be ready in time for the season – a luxury us in the south did not have.
