View From Down Under

After nearly two years of recession, the US finally reported economic growth for the September quarter of 3.5%.  This is quite a good result, comparable to the best quarters of the last four years.

According to the Commerce Department, the biggest single contributor to growth was the cash for clunkers program – motor vehicle output added 1.66% of the 3.5% reported.  The next biggest contributor appears to have been the combination of home buyers credit and low interest rates boosting housing purchases.

Pretty clear evidence that the government stimulus programs are having the desired effect.

Most American I know don’t feel that the recession has ended, so it will be interesting to see how economic growth continues without the strong, direct stimulus of a cash for clunkers type of program.  On the other hand, about half of the stimulus package remains to be spent, so this may continue to keep the economy’s head above water until underlying growth returns.

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The White House is learning the lesson I learned as a boy at summer camp – you can’t win a fight with a skunk.

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President Obama gave a speech at Texas A&M University last night.  Aside from being my alma mater, it is also known as the most conservative university in the country.  Obama was there by invitation from George H.W. Bush to hold a forum on community service.

There was, of course, a protest organised.  It could be that the age of university students has gone way up, but from the photos it looks like at most half the crowd are students.  I particularly liked this guy, who looks like a regular at the Dixie Chicken.   This one wants Obama to call Glenn Beck – but doesn’t say what she wants Obama to call him.  You can get a sense of the size of the crowd from the supporters behind this guy.

I was a student at A&M when Jimmy Carter was President.  I was never a fan of President Carter (although I think he has made a pretty good ex President), but if he had arrived on campus to talk about community service, I can’t imagine there would have been this kind of protesting.  So I was encouraged by this video, posted by The Battalion (Texas A&M’s student newspaper and source of the other photos).  Starts off with a student protest, and then gets into some very sensible student reaction.

(H/T: The Battalion Online)

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US approval ratings around the world have soared since the inauguration of Barack Obama.  A new poll just released in Australia by the Lowy Institute is another data point for the trend.

According to the poll, in 2006 Japan was the country trusted by most Australians (73%) to act responsibly in the world, followed by India (68%).   China and the US tied for third – only 60% of Australians trusted the US to act responsibly in the world.  More tellingly, in 2006 39% of Australians did not trust the US to act responsibly in the world.  More Australians felt that way about the US than about China, India, or Japan.

The latest poll shows a remarkable change.  The US now leads the list of trusted countries, with 83%.  The percentage that did not trust the US dropped to 18% – the lowest of any country and less than half the number of three years ago.

In large part, this reflects the repair to the damage to US prestige caused over the last 10 years.  There was a clear perception that the US was not interested in dialog, not interested in engagement and consensus, and not particularly concerned with what any other country thought.  Whether this is an accurate reflection of US foreign policy is irrelevant – it was undeniably the perception.

That perception has now changed, and changed dramatically.

Although President Obama has shifted US foreign policy, there has been little time for that policy to work.  It is also true that many of Obama’s policies will be substantially the same as Bush’s – pursuing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, sanctions against Iran until they shelve their nuclear arms intentions, and etc.

But words have power.  Using phrases like “we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist”, instead of “axis of evil”, Obama has managed to shift global perception of the United States in a powerful way.

This is important for a number of reasons, but I’ll leave you with just one.  If the US wants to convince the leader of a democratic country to act in concert on an issue, how that country’s citizens view the US has a huge impact on how receptive the leader is to the US approach, and thus has a major impact on the ability of the President to gather international support.

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Forward’s Law:  If you receive an email that’s been forwarded more than twice, it’s not true.

In 2005, the Treasurer of Australia, Peter Costello, said:  “If you can’t agree with parliamentary law, independent courts, democracy, and would prefer Sharia law and have the opportunity to go to another country which practices it, perhaps, then, that’s a better option.”

“I’d be saying to clerics who are teaching that there are two laws governing people in Australia, one the Australian law and another the Islamic law, that that is false.  There’s only one law in Australia – it’s the law that’s made by the parliament of Australia and enforced by our courts. There is no second law.”

A Pakistani newspaper ran an article after Costello’s comments that said:  “Muslims who want to live under Islamic Sharia law were told on Wednesday to get out of Australia, as the government targeted radicals in a bid to head off potential terror attacks”.

Costello’s party lost the next election in 2007, and Kevin Rudd (leader of the Labour Party) was elected as Prime Minister.  Kevin Rudd speaks Mandarin Chinese.

Later, in January 2008, a former policeman and manager at the state rail’s security division allegedly sent an email that said, inter alia, “Immigrants not Australians must adapt. Take it or leave it. I am tired of this nation worrying about whether we are offending some individual or their culture … We speak English, not Spanish, Lebanese, Arabic, Chinese, Japanese, Russian or any other language.” and “This is our country, our land, our lifestyle and we will allow every opportunity to enjoy all this.  But once you are done complaining, whining and griping about our flag, our pledge, our national motto, our way of life, I highly encourage you to take advantage of one other great Australian freedom. If you are not happy here then move.”

The manager denied he had sent the email, but was still sacked.  (Incidentally, the email clearly originated in the US.  Australians typically say ‘whinging’ instead of ‘whining’, very few people in Australia speak Spanish, and there is no Australian pledge or official national motto).

Why do I bring up this old news?  From time to time I receive the email below – although every year it sprouts an extra paragraph or two – and it came along again last  week.

America, Canada, all Europe ……. needs a President like this.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd – Australia

Muslims who want to live under Islamic Sharia law were told on Wednesday to get out of Australia, as the government targeted radicals in a bid to head off potential terror attacks.

Separately, Howard [refers to former Prime Minister John Howard, Kevin Rudd’s predecessor] angered some Australian Muslims on Wednesday by saying he supported spy agencies monitoring the nation’s mosques…

Quote: ‘IMMIGRANTS, NOT AUSTRALIANS, MUST ADAPT. Take It Or Leave It. I am tired of this nation worrying about whether we are offending some individual or their culture. Since the terrorist attacks on Bali, we have experienced a surge in patriotism by the majority of Australians.’

‘This culture has been developed over two centuries of struggles, trials and victories by millions of men and women who have sought freedom. We speak mainly ENGLISH, not Spanish, Lebanese, Arabic, Chinese, Japanese, Russian, or any other language. Therefore, if you wish to become part of our society, Learn the Language!’

‘Most Australians believe in God. This is not some Christian, right wing, political push, but a fact, because Christian men and women, on Christian principles, founded this nation, and this is clearly documented. It is certainly appropriate to display it on the walls of our schools. If God offends you, then I suggest you consider another part of the world as your new home, because God is part of our culture.’

‘We will accept your beliefs, and will not question why. All we ask is that you accept ours, and live in harmony and peaceful enjoyment with us.’

‘This is OUR COUNTRY, OUR LAND, and OUR LIFESTYLE, and we will allow you every opportunity to enjoy all this.. But once you are done complaining, whining, and griping about Our Flag, Our Pledge, Our Christian beliefs, or Our Way of Life, I highly encourage you take advantage of one other great Australian freedom, THE RIGHT TO LEAVE.’

If you agree, please SEND THIS ON…

Or you could hit “Reply All” with a link to this post.

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“The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2009 is to be awarded to President Barack Obama for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples. The Committee has attached special importance to Obama’s vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons.” (Quote from official press release).

Iran, the Taliban, and Fox News condemned the decision.

In justifying the award, the committee emphasized the multilateral basis of the President’s foreign policy, which it believes is “founded in the concept that those who are to lead the world must do so on the basis of values and attitudes that are shared by the majority of the world’s population”.

What they’re talking about is soft power. Soft power (a phrase coined by Harvard Professor Joseph Nye in 2004) is the ability to get what you want by attraction. Hard power is the ability to coerce (primarily military and economic power). In foreign policy terms, soft power includes the attractiveness of values, culture, and foreign policy, and critically, the way the country lives up to its own values, culture, and policy. When a country is widely seen to live up to its own values, and those values are widely shared, it creates legitimacy for foreign policy initiatives. The reverse is also true. For example, China has abundant hard power, but does not have the ability to lead global policy on, say, environmental regulation, because its own track record on both legislation and enforcement has been relatively poor.

When a country has a great deal of hard power, it is tempting to use it. However in today’s world, military and economic strength have the most value when they are not deployed. The United States lost a great deal of soft power through things like Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, and unilaterally deploying hard power – actions that were seen to contradict the US values of humane treatment, due process, and constructive engagement. Values only carry weight when they are adhered to.

What the Nobel committee is recognizing is the amazing shift in US soft power as a result of President Obama’s initiatives. The outcomes of that are not yet complete, and the goal of a world free from nuclear weapons will never be achieved, but the ability of the United States to lead has been greatly enhanced. The Nobel committee obviously sees this as important to world peace.

One measure of this comes from a recent survey of over 26,000 people in 25 countries. On average, less than half the people surveyed in 2007 viewed the United States favorably (44%), but in the most recent survey, 57% have a positive view. The change is particularly marked amongst the US allies in Western Europe. France moved from 39% favorable opinion to 75%, with similar moves in Germany and Spain.

I know that many Americans have no care or interest in what the rest of the world thinks, but this is both short sighted and dangerous. If the US is to have a positive impact on world affairs, it needs effective soft power just as much, if not more, than effective military and economic power.

I agree with Fox News that the prize is premature, but the committee is highlighting to both Americans and the rest of the world the profound implications of returning to the high ground.

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A series of computer failures put the site on hold for a bit. More posts in process. Thanks for the comments.

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