Facts? Not for me, thanks
I’m (slowly) reading On Being Certain, which I highly recommend. One of the key messages is that there is a ‘feeling’ of certainty that in reality has nothing to do with being right. I suspect we can all recall a time when something we knew with every fiber of our being actually turned out to be incorrect. I put that into the ‘life is humbling’ basket.
A recent Boston Globe article has highlighted the same thing (h/t EconomistMom). More and more studies are now confirming that once a person ‘believes’ something, even facts that prove them wrong do not change their belief.
In case you missed that, even when we are conclusively proved to be wrong, we very often don’t change our belief. We dismiss the facts rather than change our minds.
Which goes a long way towards explaining things like the Birthers, or why so many intelligent people believe Bush’s tax cuts increased revenue, or (not to pick too much on the right wing) the overwhelming belief among Democrats that George W Bush is stupid.
It also goes a long way towards explaining the influence of entertaining (but factually challenged) political commentators (cough, Glen Beck, cough), and the fervor of their followers.
Unfortunately, it means that one of the goals of this blog – to encourage people to think beyond the sound bite – is ultimately doomed.
But I’m an optimist, and believe (perhaps despite the facts) that there are some who are willing to at least entertain the idea that if the data doesn’t support their belief, they may need to adjust their belief.
Here’s hoping…
Update: This will be the only post visible for a while…
